Propensity modeling

28M households scored · 90-day first-order likelihood · AUC 0.81

Households scored

28.4M

every addressable household in the US footprint

Top-decile conversion

5.9%

3.1x the 1.9% average

Top 20% captures

52%

of future buyers

Priority markets

9

average score 70+

Propensity by market

Bubble size is addressable households; color is the market's average score.

New York — score 45, 7,450k householdsLos Angeles — score 43, 5,690k householdsChicago — score 61, 3,420k householdsPhiladelphia — score 47, 2,950k householdsDallas — score 52, 2,670k householdsHouston — score 40, 2,490k householdsSan Francisco — score 63, 2,450k householdsAtlanta — score 58, 2,310k householdsTampa — score 42, 1,950k householdsBoston — score 71, 1,920k householdsDetroit — score 38, 1,880k householdsPhoenix — score 56, 1,870k householdsMiami — score 33, 1,700k householdsSeattle — score 82, 1,640k householdsMinneapolis — score 76, 1,480k householdsSacramento — score 55, 1,300k householdsDenver — score 88, 1,210k householdsPittsburgh — score 49, 1,090k householdsCharlotte — score 67, 1,050k householdsPortland — score 84, 980k householdsAustin — score 69, 910k householdsKansas City — score 64, 880k householdsNashville — score 73, 830k householdsLas Vegas — score 36, 820k householdsColumbus — score 59, 810k householdsSalt Lake City — score 79, 760k householdsRaleigh — score 74, 720k householdsMemphis — score 31, 640k householdsNew Orleans — score 29, 630k householdsBoise — score 77, 330k householdsSeattleDenverPortlandSalt Lake CityBoise
Priority (70+)Grow (50–69)Deprioritize (<50)

Market ranking

Average propensity score, 0–100.

Denver
881,210k
Portland
84980k
Seattle
821,640k
Salt Lake City
79760k
Boise
77330k
Minneapolis
761,480k
Raleigh
74720k
Nashville
73830k
Boston
711,920k
Austin
69910k
Charlotte
671,050k
Kansas City
64880k

+ 18 more markets

Gains curve

Share of future buyers reached when targeting the top X% of households by score.

Conversion rate by score decile

Predicted 90-day first-order rate. Dashed line is the average.

Audience segments

Index is the segment's predicted conversion rate vs the average household (100).

SegmentHouseholdsConversionIndexExpected buyers12-mo value each

Outdoor homeowners

35–54, owns a home, active outdoor interest

2,140,0006.1%321130,540$498

Recent movers

Moved in the last 6 months, furnishing a new home

1,380,0005.2%27471,760$436

Lapsed buyers

Bought 12–24 months ago, no order since

410,0004.8%25319,680$351

Suburban families

Kids at home, suburban, $100k+ income

3,260,0003.4%179110,840$412

Urban renters

25–34, renting in a city core

4,720,0001.4%7466,080$262

Deal seekers

Buys mainly on promotion

2,950,0001.2%6335,400$219