LTV modeling

FY25 new customers · 9 months observed, 3 predicted · 45% gross margin

Predicted 12-mo value

$385

per new customer · 103,080 acquired

Blended CAC

$146

media spend per new customer

LTV : CAC

2.64x

12-month revenue over CAC

Payback

7 mo

gross margin covers CAC

Cumulative value per customer

Revenue per customer by months since first order. Shaded months are predicted.

LTV : CAC by channel

12-month value per dollar of acquisition cost. 3x is the usual bar.

Channel value table

Sorted by predicted 12-month value per customer.

ChannelNew customersCAC12-mo valueLTV : CACPayback
Connected TV19,663$134$5123.81x4 mo
Paid Search — Brand8,633$171$4682.73x6 mo
Online Video7,990$148$4463.02x5 mo
Paid Search — Non-brand29,034$112$3953.52x4 mo
Retail Media4,433$171$3522.05x> 12 mo
Podcast & Audio2,583$240$3311.38x> 12 mo
Paid Social25,750$160$2681.68x> 12 mo
Affiliate & Partnerships4,994$188$2441.30x> 12 mo

Where the value sits

Share of new customers vs share of their 12-month value.

Top 20% of customers54% of value
Next 30% of customers29% of value
Bottom 50% of customers17% of value

A fifth of new customers carry more than half of first-year value — the segment propensity targeting should find more of.